Voodoo Trading
Voodoo trading could add a lot to your bottom line. W.D.
Gann, R.N. Elliott and other cultists spent years studying the
market's mystical side, trying to figure out how obscure ideas
could tap hidden profits. Magic numbers, astrological dates and
prayer wheels have all been enlisted in the search for that
elusive trading edge.
Most traders believe Fibonacci fits in the category of market
witchcraft, but this arcane science has a basis in fact. A 12th
century monk known as Fibonacci discovered a logical sequence
that appears throughout nature. Beginning with 1 + 1, the sum of
the last two numbers that precede it creates another Fibonacci
number. For example: 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13,
8+13=21, 13+21=34, 21+34=55, etc.
Major ratios between Fibonacci numbers identify expected
retracement levels, as markets pull back after rallies or
selloffs. The most common Fib retracements are 38%, 50% and 62%
of the principal price movement. These are price levels where
many traders expect important reversals and bounces. For obvious
reasons, these also represent entry signals in many short-term
strategies.
Fibonacci patterns and the Elliott Wave are kissing cousins.
According to Elliott, major rallies or selloffs occur in three
primary waves, with two countertrend waves in between. These
waves are often boxed into major retracement levels. Go back and
look at my article "Mind the Gaps." Notice how Fibonacci
retracements can also define levels where markets jump from one
price to another.
Markets swing off common retracements as they move from
support to resistance and back. But these dynamics have become
harder to trade in recent years. The popularity of Fibonacci as
a technical tool is the likely culprit. Many smart players now
trade against key retracement levels because they know weaker
hands will jump in at these prices. For example, they will sell
support just because of expectations of a bounce at that price
level.
But Fibonacci applications still have tremendous value for swing
traders. The trick is to use an original approach. First, never
trade a retracement level in a vacuum. Look for other forms of
support or resistance to show up at the same price level. For
example, when you see a 50-day moving average, an intermediate
high and a trend line converge at a 62% retracement, the odds
for an important reversal greatly increase.
You can also learn to trade the Fibonacci whipsaw. Stand
aside when price pulls back to a deep retracement level. Let
other traders take the bait and get shaken out when price breaks
through the number. Then let the market reverse and jump back
across the retracement level. Use this crossing as your entry
signal. The markets usually punish only one side of the action
at a time.
Apply less common retracement strategies to avoid the crowd.
H.M. Gartley described little-known Fibonacci relationships in
his 1937 book "Profits in the Stock Market." The Gartley Pattern
relies on a 78% retracement, and represents another way to
capitalize on those caught in a 62% whipsaw. This classic setup,
first described almost 70 years ago, works just as well now as
it did during the Great Depression.
You can also trade Fibonacci extensions, instead of
retracements. Market wizard Larry Pesavento highlights a Gartley
variation he calls the Butterfly Pattern. This is a complex
formation, which carries price 27% past a 100% retracement
before it reverses. Got that?
The combination of all these waves and ratios can certainly be
confusing. But one of the joys in applying complex Fibonacci
math is its ability to confuse most traders. After all, the
markets rarely reward the trading style of the majority.